UPSC MainsECONOMICS-PAPER-I202510 Marks150 Words
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Q5.

Answer the following questions in about 150 words each : (e) What are the determinants of velocity of money in Fisher's equation ? How does it differ from the Cambridge version of velocity of money ?

How to Approach

To answer this question effectively, one must first define Fisher's equation and the concept of velocity within it, followed by its determinants. Then, the Cambridge version of the quantity theory of money should be introduced, focusing on its concept of 'k' (cash balances) which is inversely related to velocity. The core of the answer will be a comparative analysis highlighting the distinct emphasis (transactions vs. cash balances), underlying assumptions, and implications of both approaches regarding the velocity of money. A clear table can be used to delineate the differences.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The velocity of money, a crucial concept in monetary economics, measures the rate at which money is exchanged from one transaction to another. It is fundamental to understanding how changes in the money supply impact economic variables like prices and output. Two prominent schools of thought, the Fisherian (Transactions Approach) and the Cambridge (Cash Balance Approach), offer differing perspectives on the determinants and nature of this velocity, influencing their respective Quantity Theories of Money.

Determinants of Velocity of Money in Fisher's Equation

Irving Fisher's equation of exchange, expressed as MV = PT (where M = Money Supply, V = Velocity of Money, P = Price Level, and T = Volume of Transactions), treats velocity (V) as the average number of times a unit of money is spent on final goods and services within a given period. Fisher considered V to be relatively stable in the short run, determined largely by institutional and technological factors rather than being directly influenced by the quantity of money itself. The key determinants influencing the velocity of money in Fisher's framework include:
  • Frequency of Income Payments: More frequent payments (e.g., weekly vs. monthly) tend to increase velocity as individuals hold cash for shorter periods.
  • Development of Banking and Financial Instruments: Advanced financial systems with efficient clearing mechanisms reduce the need to hold large cash balances, thus increasing velocity.
  • Efficiency of Transportation and Communication: Better infrastructure facilitates quicker transactions, increasing the speed at which money circulates.
  • Community Habits and Customs: Societal preferences for using cash versus credit, or saving versus spending, influence how quickly money changes hands.
  • Economic Stability: In periods of economic stability, people spend money predictably. During hyperinflation, people spend money quickly to avoid devaluation, increasing velocity.

Difference from the Cambridge Version of Velocity of Money

The Cambridge version, primarily associated with economists like Alfred Marshall, A.C. Pigou, and John Maynard Keynes, presented an alternative approach. While Fisher focused on money as a medium of exchange, the Cambridge economists emphasized its role as a store of value. Their equation, often expressed as M = kPY (where M = Money Supply, k = proportion of nominal income held as cash balances, P = Price Level, and Y = Real Income), implies velocity as the inverse of 'k' (V = 1/k). The key differences between Fisher's and Cambridge's interpretations of velocity are summarized below:
Feature Fisher's Equation (Transactions Approach) Cambridge Version (Cash Balance Approach)
Concept of Velocity Transactions Velocity (V): Average number of times a unit of money changes hands for all transactions (including intermediate ones). Focus on money as a medium of exchange. Income Velocity (implied as 1/k): Reflects how much money people desire to hold as a proportion of their nominal income. Focus on money as a store of value.
Determinants of Velocity Primarily institutional and technological factors (payment frequency, banking development, transport efficiency), assumed stable in the short run. Behavioral factors: individual decisions to hold cash balances (k), influenced by interest rates (opportunity cost), wealth, expectations about future prices, and convenience/security of holding cash.
Nature of Money Flow concept; money is primarily viewed in terms of its flow of expenditure over a period. Stock concept; money is viewed as a stock held by individuals at a point in time.
Emphasis Supply side of money, focusing on the mechanical circulation of money. Demand side of money, focusing on individual's desire to hold cash balances.
Short-run vs. Long-run Assumed constant in the short run for predicting price level changes. 'k' (and thus velocity) is less stable and can fluctuate even in the short run due to changes in individual preferences and expectations.

Conclusion

In essence, while both Fisher's and the Cambridge versions contribute to understanding the relationship between money and prices, their conceptualization of velocity diverges significantly. Fisher's mechanistic view emphasized institutional factors governing transaction speed, treating velocity as stable. In contrast, the Cambridge approach, by introducing 'k' as a behavioral variable reflecting money demand for holding cash balances, provided a more nuanced understanding of velocity, incorporating individual preferences and expectations. This latter perspective laid the groundwork for Keynes's liquidity preference theory and enriched modern monetary theory by highlighting the endogenous nature of money velocity.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Velocity of Money
The velocity of money is the rate at which money is exchanged in an economy. It measures how many times a unit of currency is used to purchase goods and services within a specific period, usually a year.
Fisher's Equation of Exchange (MV=PT)
An equation that represents the Quantity Theory of Money, where M is the money supply, V is the velocity of money, P is the general price level, and T is the volume of transactions. It posits a direct relationship between money supply and price level, assuming V and T are constant.

Key Statistics

The M2 velocity of money in the United States, a key indicator often referenced by economists, has generally been on a declining trend over the past few decades, reflecting changes in financial habits and economic structure, though it saw fluctuations during periods of economic uncertainty. For example, it reached an all-time low of 1.10 in Q2 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating reduced spending relative to money supply.

Source: Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED)

The real GDP growth rate for India was projected at 7.3% for FY2023-24 by the National Statistical Office (NSO). This growth, combined with factors affecting money demand and supply, influences the actual velocity of money in the Indian economy.

Source: National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India (Latest available estimates)

Examples

Impact of Digital Payments on Velocity

The widespread adoption of digital payment systems like UPI (Unified Payments Interface) in India or mobile money in African nations can increase the velocity of money. By reducing the time and friction associated with transactions, these technologies enable money to move more quickly through the economy, as individuals and businesses can access and spend funds almost instantly.

Hyperinflation and Velocity

During periods of hyperinflation, such as in Weimar Republic Germany or Zimbabwe, people lose faith in the value of their currency. They tend to spend money as quickly as they receive it, leading to a dramatic increase in the velocity of money. This increased velocity exacerbates the inflationary spiral, as money changes hands rapidly, chasing a relatively fixed supply of goods and services.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why is the stability of velocity important for the Quantity Theory of Money?

The stability of velocity is crucial because if it fluctuates unpredictably, a direct and proportional relationship between money supply and price level (as suggested by the Quantity Theory) cannot be reliably established. If velocity is constant, changes in money supply directly translate to changes in prices, but if it varies, the impact becomes more complex.

How does 'k' in the Cambridge equation relate to the demand for money?

'k' represents the proportion of nominal income that individuals and firms wish to hold in the form of cash balances. A higher 'k' signifies a greater desire to hold money, implying a lower velocity (1/k), as money is being held rather than spent rapidly. Conversely, a lower 'k' means less money is held, leading to higher velocity.

Topics Covered

EconomicsMonetary EconomicsQuantity Theory of MoneyMonetary Aggregates