UPSC MainsPOLITICAL-SCIENCE-INTERANATIONAL-RELATIONS-PAPER-II201715 Marks
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Q21.

Despite the differences between India and Pakistan on various issues, Indus Water Treaty has stood the test of times. In the light of this statement, discuss the recent developments over this issue.

How to Approach

This question requires a nuanced understanding of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), its historical context, and recent challenges. The answer should begin by establishing the treaty’s significance and resilience. Then, it needs to detail the recent developments – primarily India’s responses to cross-border terrorism and the Kishanganga and Ratle Hydroelectric Projects – while analyzing the implications for the treaty’s future. A balanced approach acknowledging both sides’ concerns is crucial. Structure: Introduction, Historical Background, Recent Developments & Disputes, Implications & Future, Conclusion.

Model Answer

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Introduction

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan with the mediation of the World Bank, is often hailed as one of the most successful water-sharing agreements globally. Despite enduring political tensions and multiple wars, the treaty has largely withstood the test of time, providing a framework for cooperation over the six rivers of the Indus System – the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej. However, recent years have witnessed increasing strain on the treaty, particularly following the Uri attack in 2016 and subsequent cross-border terrorist activities, leading to India’s reconsideration of its implementation and initiating projects that Pakistan alleges violate the treaty’s provisions.

Historical Background of the Indus Waters Treaty

The roots of the IWT lie in the partition of India in 1947, which created disputes over the allocation of water resources. The Indus basin was crucial for both countries, particularly for irrigation in Punjab. Years of negotiations, facilitated by the World Bank, culminated in the 1960 treaty. The treaty allocated the eastern rivers – Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej – to India, while the western rivers – Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab – were allocated to Pakistan. However, India was allowed to use the western rivers for limited irrigation, run-of-river hydroelectric power generation, and domestic use.

Key Provisions of the Treaty

  • Water Sharing: Clearly demarcates water rights for both nations.
  • Permanent Indus Commission: Established a joint commission to maintain the treaty and resolve disputes.
  • Dispute Resolution Mechanism: Outlines a three-step process for resolving disagreements: negotiations, mediation by a neutral expert, and arbitration by a court of arbitration.
  • Inspection Rights: Allows each country to inspect the other’s projects on the rivers.

Recent Developments and Disputes

The IWT faced significant challenges following the 2016 Uri attack, which prompted India to review the treaty. While India did not abrogate the treaty, it initiated a reassessment of its implementation and explored options to maximize its own water usage. Several key developments have fueled tensions:

Kishanganga Hydroelectric Project (330 MW)

Pakistan alleges that the project, located on the Jhelum River, violates the treaty by diverting water and reducing flow to Pakistan. India maintains that the project is compliant with the treaty’s provisions for run-of-river power generation. The Court of Arbitration, in its final award in December 2022, largely upheld India’s design, but directed some modifications.

Ratle Hydroelectric Project (850 MW)

Pakistan raised objections to the Ratle project on the Chenab River, claiming it would significantly impact water flow. The matter went to arbitration, and in August 2023, the Court of Arbitration allowed India to proceed with the project, subject to certain conditions regarding sediment management and design modifications.

India’s Use of Water as Leverage

There have been reports and discussions about India potentially considering limited water releases during periods of heightened tensions. While not officially confirmed, this has raised concerns in Pakistan about India using water as a strategic tool.

Appointment of Neutral Expert & Court of Arbitration

Pakistan requested the appointment of a Neutral Expert in 2018 regarding the Kishanganga project, while India requested a Court of Arbitration. This simultaneous invocation of different dispute resolution mechanisms created a procedural deadlock, highlighting the treaty’s limitations in handling complex disputes.

Implications and Future of the Treaty

The recent disputes have raised questions about the long-term viability of the IWT. While complete abrogation seems unlikely due to the treaty’s benefits for both countries, the increasing strain could lead to:

  • Reduced Cooperation: Diminished trust and willingness to share data and collaborate on water management.
  • Increased Litigation: More frequent recourse to arbitration and legal battles, potentially leading to delays and uncertainties.
  • Water Security Concerns: Heightened anxieties about water availability, particularly in Pakistan, which is heavily reliant on the Indus basin.
  • Need for Treaty Revision: Calls for a comprehensive review and potential revision of the treaty to address contemporary challenges, including climate change and evolving water needs.
Issue India’s Position Pakistan’s Position
Kishanganga Project Compliant with treaty provisions; run-of-river project. Violates treaty by diverting water and reducing flow.
Ratle Project Compliant with treaty provisions, subject to modifications. Impacts water flow and violates treaty provisions.
Use of Water as Leverage Denies intentionally using water as a strategic tool. Concerns about potential water releases during tensions.

Conclusion

Despite the recent tensions and disputes, the Indus Waters Treaty remains a crucial framework for managing water resources between India and Pakistan. While the treaty has faced challenges, its resilience over six decades demonstrates its inherent value. However, maintaining its effectiveness requires both countries to prioritize dialogue, adhere to the dispute resolution mechanisms, and consider a comprehensive review to address emerging challenges like climate change. A collaborative approach, rather than a confrontational one, is essential to ensure water security and regional stability.

Answer Length

This is a comprehensive model answer for learning purposes and may exceed the word limit. In the exam, always adhere to the prescribed word count.

Additional Resources

Key Definitions

Run-of-River Project
A hydroelectric power project that does not involve large-scale water storage (damming) but utilizes the natural flow of the river to generate electricity.
Permanent Indus Commission
A joint commission established under the IWT, comprising commissioners from both India and Pakistan, responsible for maintaining the treaty, exchanging data, and resolving minor disputes.

Key Statistics

Approximately 80% of Pakistan’s agricultural water supply originates from the Indus River basin.

Source: Pakistan Water and Power Development Authority (WAPDA) - Knowledge Cutoff 2023

The Indus basin covers approximately 300,000 square kilometers, with roughly 147,000 square kilometers in Pakistan and 153,000 square kilometers in India.

Source: World Bank Report on the Indus Waters Treaty - Knowledge Cutoff 2023

Examples

Baglihar Hydroelectric Project

The Baglihar project (193 MW) on the Chenab River was another source of dispute between India and Pakistan, with Pakistan alleging violations of the IWT. The matter was resolved through arbitration, with some modifications made to the project’s design.

Frequently Asked Questions

Can India unilaterally abrogate the Indus Waters Treaty?

While India can theoretically abrogate the treaty, it would be a highly contentious move with significant international repercussions. It could damage India’s reputation, lead to increased regional instability, and potentially invite international sanctions. The treaty’s benefits for both countries make complete abrogation unlikely.

Topics Covered

International RelationsEnvironmentPolitical ScienceWater SecurityBilateral RelationsTreaty LawRegional Conflicts